Global auction sales fell 6% in the first half of 2025: Arttactic report
Although much of the global auction market continues into the correction period, full auction sales for Christie’s, Sotheby’s and Phillips are only in the first half of 2025. Rose Compared with the same period last year, 1.3%.
“Nothing feels very good this year, but the data actually suggests a 6.2% drop, especially due to things like tariffs,” Lindsay Dewar, chief operating officer and head of analysis at Arttactic told Neldsay Dewar. Artnews.
Arttactic, an art market research and analysis company, released five reports earlier this week and analyzed in detail the global auction data, including online sales only, geographic trends, category breakdowns, luxury goods, luxury goods and guarantees.
Despite overall global auction sales down 6.2%, sales of post-war and contemporary art fell 19.3% to $1.22 billion, Impressionism and Modern Art fell 7.7% to $989.5 million, and luxury goods sales were almost stable (down 0.5% to $805.9 million). Design, decorative arts and furniture grew significantly (up 20.4% to $172 million), while the old Masters were more (up 35.6% to $171.2 million).
Global auction sales fell by 6.2% in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period last year, but were the second lowest in the past decade. Charts are provided by Arttactic.
Dewar noted that post-war and contemporary art sales declines in the first half of 2025 were due to fewer high-priced trophys, noting Andy Warhol’s withdrawal Large electric chair Bronze bust with Alberto Giacometti Grande Tête Mince (Grande Tête de Diego) Buyers were not found in May.
“If you have a real trophy and you’re a little worried about selling it right now, I think a lot of people, if they don’t have to sell it, they’ll stick with it,” she said. “When people feel nervous and don’t want to sell them, people trade that kind of blue chip artist. There might be something selling $1 to $10 million, but that doesn’t really make the total increase.”
In contrast, total sales of Impressionism and Modern Art fell by 7.7%, reflecting a more conservative, risk-averse approach for new acquisitions by buyers.
“People think in an uncertain market, if I had a million dollars that could cost a million dollars, would I spend an artist that I had just heard a month ago?” Dewar said. “Or I’m going to spend an artist that has been around for the last 50 years, with very stable deals in its market? You may not get a huge return, but in two or three years it’s still worth about $1 million.”
Data analyzed by Arttactic also show that post-war and contemporary artists born after birth in New York, London and Hong Kong in 1910 have performed well with the artwork.
In the first half of 2025, the proportion of guaranteed and contemporary engineering sold at night has risen to 72.9%, the highest market share since 2016. Charts are provided by Arttactic.
In the first half of 2025, market share of post-war and contemporary engineering was sold in evening sales, with homes or third-party guarantees rising to 72.9%, the highest number since Arttactic began tracking that figure in 2016. “This is probably the highest guaranteed level ever in the market,” Dewar said. “Some people would say it’s a sign of market confidence. People are saying it, but I think in fact, for the moment, it’s a sign of risk aversion.”
Third-party guarantees also account for 96% of the total sales value of the guaranteed goods, while 90.7% of the guaranteed lots sold in this category of projects, as the auction houses transfers the guaranteed risks to the third party. “It’s so unusual to see something that isn’t right now,” Diva said, noting that the shift even applies to dedicated solo sales, which essentially have been sold before the auction. “It’s essentially a public-private sale, you might argue. It really brings some risks to people.”
The data also shows that many people who don’t have guarantees usually don’t sell or withdraw quickly. “No one would guarantee Giacometti because there is no buyer at the $70 million level the customer wants, so it is not for sale,” Dewar notes. “So, there is no guarantee, how do you know if there will be a lot of it for sale?”
One room for upside for a small number of projects sold at auction is the average compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 36.4%, while the average margin ratio is 4.6%.
During the first six months of 2025, the unguaranteed auction items had a compound annual growth rate of 36.4% (CAGR). The guaranteed lot has a CAGR of 4.6%. Charts are provided by Arttactic.
While non-guaranteed plots may be more turbulent, the possibility of better returns is due to the perception that guarantees may be a hedging risk and may prevent more bids, Diva said. “So if you don’t need a guarantee, you can behave so much, especially in a market like this,” she said.
Compared to auctions in other cities like Paris, London or Hong Kong, Diva also points to the emphasis on New York sales, and the shift in summer sales calendars at Christie, Sotheby’s and Phillips.
“There was a big summer,” Diva said, noting that Christie’s night sales and “a lot smaller” at Sotheby’s and Phillips. “It feels like they’re backing a little bit. I feel it’s a supply issue and they want to stop it and wait for October.”
Arttactic’s data analysis shows that the value of online auctions fell by 10%, but the amount of land sold through these platforms increased by 12.9%, with “evolving buyer participation” and growth “focused on major European cities.”
Dewar attributes these shifts to greater confidence in online buying and selling over the past five years of the Covid-19 pandemic.
“Covid allows people to be like, oh, actually, OK, that’s good. We can trade online. We can buy a million dollars online, or anything else. So people are confident to do that.”
In addition to the low end of the market (estimated estimated $1 million and below), Dewar also noted that the structure of online sales also allows for more bids in a week than sales for a week. “It only allows more sales through that particular sales channel,” she said.
In the second half of this year, Dewar is expected to guarantee a “really important role” in attracting goods. “This gives them confidence that the auction house is confident in them, which helps avoid risks,” she said.
The perception of art market guarantees may also change due to its prevalence and success, such as Canaletto’s recent sale at Old Master’s Auction in London for £31.9 million ($43.7 million).
“I think the role of guarantees could shift from being a risk aversion strategy to a sign of confidence,” Dewar said. “If nearly three-quarters of the market are guaranteed and you’re looking for something that doesn’t, I think I’ll start thinking ‘Now, why don’t they guarantee that?
