The federal government appears to be on the verge of reopening after a successful vote on Capitol Hill Wednesday night.
Now, the race to get air travel back on track is on, with just over a week left before the unofficial start of the Thanksgiving travel rush, and the stakes are high.
Airlines expect to carry a record 31 million passengers between November 21 and December 1. The Sunday after Türkiye Day is also likely to break the record for the busiest day ever at a U.S. airport.
But after tens of thousands of flight cancellations and delays over the past week, key questions remain: Will holiday travel go smoothly, or will travelers suffer a shutdown hangover at the airport?
“This is not a light switch,” warns Shay Girard, a professor at Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business and a former airline pilot. “I still think this is going to be a more challenging travel season than a normal travel season.”
Still, there is renewed optimism that the worst of the disruption to air travel may be behind us, as flight cancellations and delays decline and key aviation workers are paid.
“Reopening the government will allow U.S. airlines to resume operations ahead of the busy Thanksgiving holiday,” a trade group for the largest airlines said in a statement late Wednesday.
How to get air travel back on track
A few key factors will determine how quickly air travel returns to normal.
FAA flight restrictions
First, the Federal Aviation Administration still has to decide when to end mandatory flight restrictions at dozens of the nation’s busiest airports.
Reward your inbox with the TPG daily newsletter
Join over 700,000 readers and get breaking news, in-depth guides and exclusive offers from TPG experts
As of Wednesday, airlines were still required to cancel 6% of flights from 40 major hubs. The restrictions remained in effect Thursday, leading to hundreds of flight cancellations.
However, in an encouraging sign late Wednesday, the U.S. Department of Transportation said it would not expansion Those restrictions. The FAA had previously planned to increase the cancellation rate to 8% for flights departing on Thursday and to 10% starting on Friday.
Now, the required flight reductions will remain at 6%.
The restrictions are aimed at easing the burden on air traffic controllers, who lost their jobs en masse over the weekend after not receiving paychecks for weeks.
Air traffic controller staffing
How soon can airlines resume full flight schedules? “It depends on the controllers coming back,” Transport Secretary Sean Duffy said this week.
Things seem to be moving in the right direction. On Tuesday and Wednesday of this week, the FAA reported only a handful of “staffing triggers” at air traffic control facilities. There were 81 cases on Saturday, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation.
Cancellations and delays have reduced
It’s no coincidence that flight delays and cancellations fell for the third day in a row on Wednesday, FlightAware showed.
The improvement comes after air traffic controllers were told they would be paid within 48 hours of the government reopening – something aviation leaders see as a crucial step in getting staffing (and flights) back up and running.
How will airlines rebound?
Much of the burden now falls on airlines after they had to drastically and suddenly reduce flights last week, upending carefully planned departure schedules amid the chaos of the shutdown.
Michael McCormick, an air traffic control expert at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, said a key factor for Thanksgiving will be “how quickly airlines can shake off their schedules to restore connectivity.”
“If the shutdown ends this week, airlines will likely be able to restore connectivity by Thanksgiving,” McCormick predicted.
Airlines are optimistic.
“I think Friday into Saturday, you’re going to be as close to normal as possible,” Delta CEO Ed Bastian said on CNBC on Wednesday.
What passengers should expect
Over the next few days, I expect you’ll start to see airlines phase out the flexible travel exemptions they put in place during the shutdown, which gave travelers more freedom to change their tickets or cancel them and get a refund.
How long these easing policies last may depend on how long the FAA’s flight restrictions remain in place.
For travelers with travel booked for Thanksgiving, let’s round up some other quick tips:
Can it be changed? Fly in the morning
If your ticket allows changes and you have some flexibility, I would aim to fly first thing in the morning if possible. Regardless of the time of year, we tend to see an increase in travel disruptions as the year progresses.
Know your mobile app before and after
Start familiarizing yourself with the airline’s mobile apps now so you’re ready to act quickly and rebook yourself if any issues arise.
This is key to getting a seat on another flight when delays and cancellations occur.
Read more: Flight canceled or delayed? This is what to do next
Which travel days are the busiest?
If you’re hoping to avoid the crowds, getting home early from Thanksgiving (Black Friday or Saturday, November 29) may be your best bet.
Airlines expect Sunday, November 30 and Monday, December 1, to be their busiest days during the peak holiday period.
Remember, the Sunday after Thanksgiving last year was (at the time) the busiest day ever for U.S. airports.
TSA route planning
if you yes If you’re flying on these days, you may want to consider this when planning to arrive at the airport early.
Good news: Once the government fully opens up again, you should be able to use the MyTSA app to check real-time and expected security wait times. The app was unreliable during the shutdown, but should be back up and running during the holiday rush.
TSA PreCheck and Contactless ID
If you are a TSA PreCheck (or Global Entry) member, make sure your reservation comes with your known traveler number so TSA PreCheck will appear on your boarding pass.
Learn more: What to do if your boarding pass isn’t marked with TSA PreCheck
If you’re flying from an airport that offers the new TSA PreCheck Contactless ID program, opt into the Express Entry program through your airline profile.
Keep the lines open!
Of course, you also need to do your part by keeping the line moving quickly and remembering TSA’s 3-1-1 liquids rule. Good news? It will be the first holiday where travelers won’t take off their shoes at checkpoints.
Best Holiday Travel Tips for 2025
Finally, after a chaotic and tense few weeks for all airport employees, Girard recommended some grace for airlines, security and airport staff as one of his top tips for the 2025 holiday season.
“There are things you can do to reduce your risk. Take off early, look for longer connections. And, a lot of it also comes down to your attitude. Be kind to these people,” Girard said, offering her thoughts on how travelers might want to spend this special Thanksgiving travel window.
“If I’m going to give it a try,” he said, “I should expect that things are going to be challenging, and I should think about how I can help.”
Related reading:
