Holiday Travel Outlook 2025: When is the best time to book a holiday to go home?
Our preliminary report on holiday ticket trends is good news, bad news.
The bad news for travelers is that both Thanksgiving and Christmas trips are higher this year than last year…so far. But the good news is that when we enter the traditionally best booking window, prices may fall over the next few weeks and months.
But for those currently booking, new data from our friends at Point Path shows fares are getting higher and higher throughout the board holiday.
However, if the previous trend holds true, we hope to see some considerable fare drops in the coming weeks. Our best advice is to set up Google flight price alerts and monitor prices easily this way. Of course, our standard advice is the same here: if you see a deal, jump on it.
Point Path is a free web browser extension that shows points and miles rewards on Google flights as well as cash fares. Point Path uses conversions of search data to better understand how airlines currently price flights.
Related: How to use point path extensions to compare cash and reward rates in Google flights
Prices for Thanksgiving Travel in 2025
During Thanksgiving Week, we looked at flights with over 100,000 economic fares, as well as search data for international coaches and premium cabins. The data was collected on August 22.
Overall, coach prices in the United States rose more than 6% year-on-year to more than $600. Commercial-grade and advanced economic prices are slightly lower year by year.
Although we see cheaper premium cottages, international prices have increased by nearly 7% year-on-year in coach cottages.
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These data contradict the pricing trends throughout the year so far; overall, fares are usually lower.
Related: New data confirms sharp drop in Labor Day weekend air tickets
But remember that this is early in the booking window for holiday travel. TPG recommends booking domestic air tickets one to two months before travel, so prices may drop in the coming weeks. Based on previous years, you can expect an average flight ticket to drop by about $40, the cheapest time to book a domestic Thanksgiving flight, which may occur between early October and mid-October.
As the holidays get closer, we will update flight prices.
Currently, point path data shows that the cheapest day during Thanksgiving is Thanksgiving itself, with an average air ticket of about $466. If you leave early that week (like Monday), you will find that the second lowest average ticket price is $555.
Not surprisingly, the most expensive travel day is the weekend after Thanksgiving, which is $709 on Saturday and $825 on Sunday.
Related: The best time to book the cheapest flights of 2025
Christmas travel prices in 2025
Prices for Christmas flights at the end of the summer are showing a similar trend, with domestic economic flights costing an average of about $677, compared to around $633 in 2024. Premium cabins show higher price increases.
International fares have also been getting higher and higher so far, with an average of $1,266. But remember that you don’t have to book now, especially for December trips.
We expect the price to fall by about $80 between now and October’s best booking windows. But set these flight alerts and start monitoring prices immediately. Latest, you may want to pull the trigger before Halloween, because from then on, the price may soon rise.
TPG and point path data show that the cheapest day during the Christmas holiday is Christmas Eve, with an average air ticket of about $535. If you can travel on New Year’s Eve, it’s another cheapest day with an average flight ticket of $536.
The most expensive day is Saturday, December 20, with an average price of $861, while Friday, December 26, it is $834.
The best time to book a flight
It’s a myth that you can get better prices by waiting until midnight on Tuesday or other special times of the day or booking for a week. However, if you fly on Wednesday or are willing to travel on weekends (especially Saturdays), you can usually get a better deal. Often, those days have less business trips, so you will get better deals.
Usually, you need to book a domestic flight one to two months in advance. Traditionally, we have seen the best prices for Thanksgiving trips in late September or early October.
The booking window for international travel is earlier. You should book international travel three to five months in advance.
Remember that if you are using airline mileage, it’s never too early to start checking and booking. Although your mileage may vary, we usually find the best availability of Business Class when the schedule is open or within a few days before the trip.
Regarding domestic redemption, this is a bit dynamic. TPG recommends when booking you can find a “good enough” redemption and monitor the price. Remember that as long as you haven’t booked a basic economy, if you find a better deal, you should be able to cancel and restore your mileage.
I strongly encourage people to set up Google flight alerts and monitor prices carefully. Point paths can also monitor airline reward prices and alert you to changes.
If you are booking with an airline, you will be given flight credit if the cash price drops, and now you may also want to lock in lower cash or mile prices, and if you see travel time, you really want to make sure you lock in.
Related: How to Make Money on Flights
Cheaper travel hacks
I’ve written extensive articles on how to save money on travel, but my main tips remain the same:
Bottom line
Currently, domestic and international air travel is at a higher price during Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays. But, there is hope, because it is not a traditional booking time.
So far, average airfare prices have fallen and we expect average airfares for holidays (in some cases large) to drop between now and October. As we get closer to the ideal booking window, we will run the numbers again.
Now set these price alerts and plan to book Thanksgiving trips for early October and Christmas trips, heading for Halloween at the latest.
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