What can we expect from the upcoming New York auction of 20th and 21st century art? One thing is certain: They will test the resolve of the world’s biggest buyers to compete with each other in a way not seen since the 2014-16 sales season. At that time, Christie’s held a grand evening auction, displaying museum-quality paintings, with a total turnover of $850 million.
We are witnessing two of the traditional kickoffs to autumn, with auctions in London and Paris coinciding with Frieze and Art Basel in Paris respectively, both European weeks bringing a very positive spring to the market. Gone are the empty assumptions and speculative forecasts, replaced by hard fact figures from auctions and private sales that have been extremely successful.
Indeed, London’s Christie’s announced its most successful October sales since 2018, and Sotheby’s announced its most valuable Paris auction season to date. Both shows reported strong performance and attendance, with several works on display or selling for more than $20 million. End of Paris Week celebrated with $37 million in sales Dora Maar Picasso in his room at the Hôtel Drouot. Serious collectors are back, the European market is back in full health, and the rarest works by the best-known artists are once again attracting the interest and bidding they deserve. Looking back at European auctions, David Schrader, Sotheby’s head of private sales, told me, “The depth of bidding and the level of interest has increased significantly, we are seeing more private sales and the shows seem to be more active.”
Return to “Classic Modern”
This season has seen a shift away from the more speculative buying seen recently in the wet paint space towards established artists. The success of Christie’s Frieze Week sales in October can be attributed in part to their focus on orthodox artists. Cover works are by Bacon and Freud, and spread alongside them are household names such as Picasso, Cézanne, Signac, Condo, Rego, Doig and Richter. Much the same was true in Paris, where the best performing artists were Modigliani, Picasso, Richter, Klein and Magritte. Collectors are back, and with them prices for artists who have dominated the market for years have returned to more optimistic levels.
The New York sales look set to continue this trend; as Schrader said, “The work on offer [in New York are] More classically modern in nature,” including masterpieces by Matisse, Picasso, Basquiat, Rothko, Monet, Van Gogh, Kahlo and Munch. Christie’s Giovanna Bertazzoni was more emphatic. “The procession of stars,” she said, “is undeniably seductive.”
This season’s works of art, each worth more than $10 million (27 in total), are headlined by one of the greatest and most classic names of all: Gustav Klimt. the great klimt portrait of elizabeth lederer The late Leonard Lauder’s collection is expected to be worth more than $150 million. Commissioned by one of the most important patrons of the Secessionist movement, this sublime painting would grace the walls of any of the world’s most important museums.
It will also be interesting to follow the performance of Renoir, Léger and Matisse, three major artists whose prices have declined over the past decade but who this season is represented by several very important works. Among them, Renoir’s 1891 work Bagnaeus The Kawamura Museum collection seems worth a look, with a litmus test estimate of $7.5-$10 million. This is a very fine example with a long exhibition history but beyond current market taste. How will prices of Renoir’s works behave over the next ten years?
The next generation of high-priced artists
The sale also showcases a fascinating range of works by the next generation of artists, whose works are likely to achieve new headlines in excess of $10 million; results for major works by Kerry James Marshall, Peter Doig, Cecily Brown and Maurizio Cattelan are noteworthy. Marshall’s brilliant retrospective at London’s Royal Academy has been critically acclaimed, and he is destined to become one of the most sought-after artists of the next decade. This auction offers two important works; John Punch (The Angry Black Man 1646) Christie’s 2007, and Untitled 2008 Sotheby’s. Both are very fine, important paintings and deserve strong competition. Cecily Brown’s High society 1997-98 is one of the artist’s most intriguing works to appear on the open market, and a price of $4-6 million seems very reasonable for a painting of this caliber, scale, and complexity.
How deep is the mid-range market?
Speaking after the Paris auction, Valérie Didier-Hess of Christie’s was quick to point to the strong momentum in the middle market, with “many new clients bringing greater depth to the bidding”. New York does need to do this because there is a risk of supply exceeding demand there.
Both auction houses had full day sales, with works ranging in value from $20,000 to $500,000. There were approximately 1,200 works at this price level over four days. In addition to the problems posed by this narrow window, the majority of the 1,200 works are for artists based in the United States, which raises the question of whether the recovering market will bring enough customers to compete for such a large number of artworks.
On the seller side, we may see sell-through rates drop slightly as a result; for buyers, the silver lining is the opportunity to purchase works at more attractive prices. Perhaps a more pragmatic approach to estimating and reserves will pay off. Looking back on the results in Paris, Valerie commented: “We were much more selective about the artworks and artists we represented and very strict with our estimates, which led to very fierce competition.” It seemed like a magic formula when the market was guided to “restore order”; the practical test of this theory will unfold before our eyes in the next two weeks.
