We’ve just come off the most chaotic weekend at U.S. airports in years, with flight cancellations mounting across the country.
While there does appear to be momentum in Washington now to reopen the government, the Trump administration is making ominous predictions about what will soon happen to air travel if the shutdown drags on.
“I think we’re going to see significant disruptions next weekend. Maybe as early as Friday,” U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said at a news conference at Chicago’s O’Hare International Airport (ORD) on Tuesday.
Duffy also claimed that some airlines may consider grounding aircraft if disruptions worsen, although multiple aviation industry sources told TPG on Tuesday evening that they were unaware of any such plans.
Shutdowns increasing impact on air travel
However, the impact of the shutdown on air travel has certainly increased significantly in recent days. Over the weekend, travelers experienced massive disruption with more than 20,000 flight cancellations and delays on Saturday and Sunday as short-staffed air traffic control facilities were put on hours-long backups.
Learn more: Flight delayed or canceled? Here’s what to do
Air traffic controllers have been working without pay since the lockdown began, and over the past ten days or so there have been growing calls for a shutdown.
To ease the burden, the Federal Aviation Administration on Tuesday began requiring airlines to cancel 6% of flights at 40 major airports across the country, up from 4% over the weekend. Flight cuts will reach 8% by Thursday and 10% by Friday.
This means thousands of flights are canceled every day.
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What happens when the government reopens?
It’s unclear how quickly the FAA will lift these restrictions once the government reopens.
“We will wait to see the data before lifting travel restrictions,” Duffy said on Tuesday, citing safety data that he said showed an increase in safety-related incidents on runways and in the air in recent weeks.
(minor) signs of progress
There were some (slightly) positive signs on Tuesday.
While airlines have canceled more than 1,200 flights, that’s far fewer than the numbers on Saturday, Sunday or Monday, according to FlightAware. What’s more, the number of canceled flights remains stable: airlines are making required cuts, and things aren’t getting worse.
As trivial as it sounds, this is an improvement over the weekend.
By late afternoon, the FAA had reported only four so-called “staffing triggers” at its air traffic control facilities, Duffy said. On Saturday, there were 81 people.
Thanksgiving travel is coming
Still, it’s unclear how quickly air travel can get back on track if, or when, governments reopen.
Duffy said once that happens, controllers will be paid within 48 hours. This could be a critical step in getting more staff back to the control tower and getting flights back on track. However, after a tumultuous week at airports, and with just two weeks left before peak Thanksgiving travel, there’s still plenty of uncertainty.
A senior air traffic control expert told TPG last week that ending lockdowns could help Thanksgiving travel but did not predict a return to normal operations.
“There should be a little bit of a boomerang effect, but also some trickle-down effects,” said Margaret Wallace, a professor at Florida Institute of Technology’s School of Aeronautics.
What to know about air travel and shutdowns
In the meantime, TPG has full coverage on the closures and what you can do if you have travel plans:
