New poll shows Americans still bullish on travel in 2026, but there are dark clouds on the horizon
Our annual travel sentiment survey for 2026 has some surprises.
As 2025 begins, airlines are warning of a drop in bookings, especially in the back of the plane. This has led to profitability concerns or reduced flight schedules at major U.S. airlines. But ultimately, despite a significant drop in international travel to the U.S., 2025 is shaping up to be a pretty good year for airlines and the travel industry as a whole
According to the Transportation Security Administration, the number of passengers flying in 2025 (more than 906 million) is slightly higher than the total in 2024.
In the final months of 2025, the travel spike was even more dramatic: Between October 1 and December 1 (the fourth quarter), about 1.9% more travelers passed through TSA checkpoints than in 2024. This includes an all-time record of more than 3 million passengers on November 30, the Sunday after Thanksgiving.
So far this year, the outlook remains quite positive. We’re seeing airlines add interesting new routes, with two of the top U.S. airlines expecting significant revenue growth this year.
Likewise, a recent YouGov poll commissioned by TPG showed little decline in travel sentiment. In fact, many Americans plan to travel more This year, according to our findings.
There are also some worrying trends in the data: the number of people reducing their travel and spending on travel is increasing every year.
We’re also sharing some interesting new polls with you about elite status – but let’s start with travel sentiment.
Most Americans plan the same or more trips as last year
A new YouGov survey finds that more than half of Americans (56%) plan to travel more or the same amount in 2026 as in the past two years.
Reward your inbox with the TPG daily newsletter
Join over 700,000 readers and get breaking news, in-depth guides and exclusive offers from TPG experts
Nearly all (94%) of those planning to travel in 2026 (i.e., “travellers”) plan to travel domestically, while 36% plan to travel internationally.
In fact, about a quarter of Americans (24%) say they plan to travel more in 2026 than they did in the past two years, while 32% plan to travel about the same amount.
But it’s not all good news when it comes to visitor sentiment.
Fewer people report traveling this year than last year, and more people report spending less on travel this year.
13% of Americans say they will travel less than in past years, while 19% of travelers say they will spend less on travel this year.
This figure has risen by several percentage points since our last travel confidence survey in May 2025. Remember, last May, many consumers were very worried about the state of the economy. So it’s a little concerning that fewer people are reporting that they travel Now – This is definitely something to keep an eye on over time.
The importance of elite status
TPG and YouGov also shed some light on elite status, as many at TPG debate the question “is elite status still worth it?”
In an age of fewer upgrades, longer upgrade lists, fewer perks, more expensive miles to redeem, and regular depreciation, it’s something we’re all grappling with. At the same time, gaining airline status is becoming increasingly difficult and expensive.
We ask travelers if they currently have elite status with any airline (e.g., AAdvantage Gold in American Airlines’ AAdvantage program, Silver Medallion in Delta’s SkyMiles program, Premier Silver in United’s MileagePlus program, etc.). A whopping 73% of travelers said they did not have airline elite status, while only 9% had some elite status. I bet, though, if we polled just TPG readers, these numbers would be much different.
We also asked: “Thinking about airline elite status benefits, how do you think they have changed over the past two years, if at all?”
Of those surveyed, 31% of elite status fliers said elite status benefits have improved, while 59% said elite status benefits have stayed the same or gotten worse. This is not what I expected, as the benefits of elite status continue to be watered down (fewer upgrades are offered, mileage redemptions are more expensive, etc.).
We also specifically asked about the value of points and miles over time, which was more in line with expectations. Only 8% of flyers said value had increased over the past few years; 25% said value had stayed the same and 18% said value had decreased.
This is a warning sign for airlines and banks that rely on the value proposition of consumers earning points and miles on recurring purchases.
There is some good news for 2026. Major airlines have kept current revenue status thresholds unchanged after raising requirements over the past few years. Delta Air Lines significantly increased its Delta Medallion membership requirements a few years ago, and United Airlines increased its revenue requirements last year.
As we enter 2026, only time will tell whether this remains the case.
bottom line
It’s a fascinating time to travel, with demand showing few signs of abating. Our new TPG and YouGov poll finds that most Americans plan to travel as much or more than in years past. Still, there are some caveats in the data, and you can bet we’ll be watching carefully for any signs of a slowdown in travel – and what that might mean for you as a traveler.
Related reading:
The Points Guy commissioned YouGov Plc to conduct the survey. Unless otherwise stated, all data comes from YouGov Plc. The total sample was 2,503 U.S. adults, 1,728 of whom planned to travel in 2026. The field survey was conducted between January 9 and 13. Surveys are conducted online and meet strict quality standards. It collects a non-probability-based sample and uses population quotas and weights to better align the survey sample with the broader U.S. population.
